El Niño Expected to Deepen Somalia’s Hunger Crisis as Heavy Rains Threaten the Horn of Africa 

October 29, 2026

El Niño is expected to intensify hunger in Somalia as heavy rains threaten communities across the Horn of Africa already devastated by conflict, displacement and repeated climate shocks. With wetter-than-normal conditions forecast across central and southern Somalia, southeastern Ethiopia and northeastern Kenya, families urgently need resources to prepare. In Somalia, 5.4 million people are projected to face crisis levels of hunger or worse until December, with flooding expected to drive further deterioration, according to UN projections. 

The World Meteorological Organization warned last week that El Niño could reach unprecedented strength toward the end of 2026. In Somalia, anticipated flooding threatens harvests, drinking water and access to food and health care at a time when families have exhausted their savings and humanitarian funding has been eviscerated. In more extreme scenarios, whole communities may be cut off until flood waters recede.  

Kate Phillips-Barrasso, Vice President of Global Policy and Advocacy at Prosper Global, who recently returned from Somalia, said: 

“Somalia is bracing for El Niño with families already going hungry and the services they depend on disappearing. At a crowded health center outside Mogadishu, I saw mothers waiting to have their children checked for malnutrition. One had walked nine kilometers with her child to get there. We heard about another mother feeding her children weak tea because it was all she had. This center was one of a dwindling number providing help to displaced mothers and children since aid levels to the country plummeted. 

“The heavy rains expected with El Niño will put more food and incomes for families at risk. Flooding is likely to destroy crops, kill livestock and force people from their homes again. It will also make communities harder to reach, just as more people are desperate for help. A washed-out road can separate a malnourished child from treatment. A lost harvest leaves a family with less to eat today and less income to get through the months ahead. Those losses will outlast the rains and push women and children into the abyss of hunger. 

“This is a slow-motion disaster. We have warnings, but communities have no means to act on them. Families need timely information and cash they can use to move livestock, protect food supplies and get somewhere safe. Local organizations need funding to prepare water sources and essential services and reach people before access is cut off. Instead, aid organizations are struggling to keep pace with growing needs today while trying to prepare for flooding tomorrow.  

“As governments and donors prepare for coming climate talks at COP, resources need to reach communities facing these risks now. That means keeping nutrition and health services open while investing in preparation and supporting families as they recover. People have worked hard to rebuild after each drought, flood and displacement. Acting early can protect their lives, the progress they have made and their ability to build a more secure future. Failing to do so dooms them to a cycle of vulnerability and hunger that will be hard to break.” 

Prosper Global, formerly Mercy Corps, has worked in Somalia since 2005. Alongside communities and local partners, we are helping meet urgent needs for food, safe water and sanitation, strengthening preparedness for droughts and floods, and supporting livelihoods and essential services. This work helps families protect what they depend on, recover from crisis and prosper on their own terms. 

Notes to editors 

  • Somalia: The latest IPC analysis projects 5.4 million people will face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse between October and December 2026, including nearly 26,000 displaced people in Baidoa projected to face Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) warns that extreme, widespread flooding and prolonged isolation from markets and lifesaving services would likely lead to famine in parts of southern Somalia. 
  • Ethiopia: Poor June–September rains are expected to reduce harvests, agricultural incomes and pasture in some areas, while southern and southeastern areas face increased flood risk during October–December. These pressures could deepen food insecurity into 2027, particularly where conflict and high food prices already constrain people’s options.   
  • Sudan: Poor rainfall is compounding conflict-related damage to farming. FEWS NET reports severely reduced harvest prospects across much of Darfur and Kordofan, with losses of food and agricultural income expected to sustain high assistance needs into 2027. 
  • Kenya: Wetter than normal conditions are anticipated for October–December, with particularly high probabilities in the northeast. Rain could help replenish pasture and water sources, but flooding could also threaten farms, livestock, and homes in exposed areas. 
  • Global outlook: WMO has said the ongoing El Niño event could be unprecedented in strength and warned that the current event’s impacts will continue beyond its expected peak toward the end of 2026.  

  • Photos and b-roll are available upon request. 

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